BLUE SKIES AHEAD? Markets have started the year on a reasonably positive note. Linked to this are positive signs from China , the side-stepping of the US fiscal crevasse, with the Japanese government announcing ¥10.3tr in stimulus measures thrown in for good measure. There are casualties from this financial market exuberance and we sympathise with NZ exporters battling the high NZD. …

Having been involved both directly and on the periphery of many trade negotiations over the past couple of decades, it is always intriguing to ferret around in the background to ascertain who is seeking to influence the process.? Who are the well-funded, ever present lobbyists with distinct commercial positions and a desire to advance their agenda at any cost?? Who …

BACK TO THE FISCAL FRONT.  With the dust settling after the FOMC tweaks, market attention invariably returns to budget negotiations.  For an understanding as to how negotiations might pan out we need to look beyond macroeconomics (which tells us to simply get a deal done: sooner as opposed to later) and into game theory. “Games” like the Prisoner’s Dilemma are examples of self …

ALL EYES ON NEW RBNZ GOVERNOR WHEELER’S FIRST MPS. Roll on 9am with the Monetary Policy Statement likely to be one of stability.  While a cut is not impossible, and had it not been for a number of positive factors (including a pick up in activity in Christchurch and a solid bounce in Auckland housing activity) we’d probably be calling for one ourselves, it is …

When the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks were in Dallas, it was both inspiring and enlightening to be with a range of Asia-Pacific business representatives talking about the opportunities afforded to countries and companies through opening up trade and developing economic ties. Same thing in San Diego. Much of the media commentary detailed empirical examples of the benefits of trade and investment …

Fiscal policy receives insufficient attention and will be a major drag on growth over the coming few years. Local government spending is also set to be sharply curtailed. These dynamics are compensated by the rebuild until 2014, but the net impact is monetary policy lower for longer. The DecemberMonetary Policy Statement is expected to be accompanied by a no change decision, …

By Stephen Jacobi TPP negotiators meet in Auckland this week to further a plan to create jobs and growth. Everyone agrees — an unemployment rate of 7.2 per cent is unacceptably high. What is less clear is what can be done about it. New Zealand is not alone in this problem — the International Labour Organisation has forecast that in …

GLOBAL MARKETS:  A quiet session overnight, with the US market closed for Thanksgiving. Further signs of recovery in the Chinese manufacturing sector underpinned optimism, with European and UK equities up 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. Core global bond yields continued their slow grind higher, while Eurozone peripheral yields edged lower. Greek Government bond yields (16.06% for the 10-year maturity) fell to their …

SOFT COMMODITY PRICES. Last night’s GlobalDairyTrade result of a 0.7% increase in the average winning price, but softer milk powder prices confirmed reports that prices have plateau for now. Trade reports are indicating most buyers have their immediate requirements covered, but order books are firming up for 2013. The catalyst for another leg up may well be when export markets shift …

By Colum Rice, Craig Armitage Historic sweeping changes at the helm of China’s ruling communist party signals the beginning of a new era for the Chinese people and a once in a decade opportunity for New Zealand to consolidate its relationship with the emerging economic powerhouse. Last week, Xi Jinping was confirmed as the man to lead China after being …